Will Tehran cede Ankara’s gas market to Russia and Turkmenistan?

According to Energy Press, the 25-year contract for Iran’s gas exports to Turkey is nearing its expiration. The landmark contract, which expires in 2026, is now in a critical stage of technical negotiations for extension or redesign.
The future of this cooperation is not only vital for Iran’s gas balance, but will also have a significant impact on regional energy relations, Iran’s geo-energetic position, and even its role in the global gas market.
Where did this contract come from?
The Iran-Turkey gas export contract is one of the oldest gas agreements in the region, signed in 1996 between the National Iranian Gas Company and the Turkish state-owned company Botas. Under this contract, Iran pledged to export about 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Turkey annually through a 2,577-kilometer pipeline.
The operational implementation of this contract began in 2001 and has continued to this day. The pipeline in question passes through the Bazargan region on the Iranian border and connects to the Turkish gas supply network.
Why is this contract important for Iran?
Turkey is the second largest customer of Iranian gas after Iraq. About 10 percent of Iranian gas exports go to Turkey. This contract has been a source of stable foreign exchange for the country during the years of sanctions. Iran has had an important place in Turkey’s energy portfolio due to its geographical proximity and low transportation costs.
With the end of this contract in 2026, failure to extend or delay the agreement will not only lead to the loss of the Turkish export market, but could also severely weaken Iran’s position in regional competition with Russia, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.
What are the latest developments?
According to reports, technical negotiations between the National Iranian Gas Company and the Turkish Botas company have begun some time ago. In these negotiations, the parties are examining new cooperation frameworks, including: the amount of gas exported in the new contract, the duration of the contract, the pricing method, infrastructure commitments and the resolution of previous disputes. Officials have not yet provided precise details.