Will Chinese buyers of Iranian oil suffer losses if sanctions are lifted?

According to Energy Press, Reuters columnist Ron Bosso wrote in an article: As indirect talks between the United States and Iran continue, US President Donald Trump said last week that the two sides were close to a deal. Of course, nuclear negotiations between Iran and Western powers have always been extremely complicated and full of stops and starts. But if there is an agreement, it will certainly include the lifting of many of the US economic restrictions on Iran’s oil industry that have had a profound impact on global energy markets.
The strict US sanctions on Iran’s oil industry have been implemented since Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, and although these sanctions have affected Iran’s oil exports, they have never succeeded in reducing Iran’s exports to zero, as Trump had promised seven years ago.
According to statistics from the analytics firm Kepler, Iran’s exports reached 2.8 million barrels per day in May 2018 and 150,000 barrels per day in May 2020; But it has steadily improved, averaging 1.65 million barrels per day since the start of 2025.
China’s private refineries have attracted significant discounts and have been the main buyers of Iranian oil in recent years. The small refineries, concentrated in the eastern province of Shandong, have a capacity of about four million barrels per day, equivalent to a fifth of China’s total refining capacity.
The exact volume of sanctioned oil that has flown to these refineries is not known, as such figures are not reflected in official Chinese customs data. However, Kepler, using ship tracking and satellite technology, estimates that China imported 77 percent of the 1.6 million barrels per day of Iranian oil exports last year. However, China’s share of Iranian oil exports has been about 50 percent so far this year due to US sanctions on several Chinese refineries and port operators.