Will China’s oil imports from Iran and Saudi Arabia decrease?

According to Energy Press; China’s demand for oil, long the most important driver of global oil demand growth, fell sharply between January and September 2024. Between 2000 and 2023, China accounted for 50% of global oil demand growth, increasing by an average of 518,000 barrels per day. However, analysts expect China’s oil demand to increase much less in 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) now expects the country’s oil demand to grow by 180,000 barrels per day this year, down from the 410,000 barrels it forecast in July.
This question is raised, does the decrease in China’s oil demand affect Iran’s exports to this country? Especially, based on the pessimistic scenario of Trump’s return, he can target Iran’s oil exports again. But what is important is the recent purchase of oil from Africa, which has led to the speculation that Chinese refineries are preparing to reduce the import of Iranian oil, although this cannot happen for various reasons and most likely Iran’s oil exports to China will continue. had
The story of African shopping
China’s oil imports have seen a noticeable change recently. According to a recent Bloomberg report, a private Chinese company bought a shipment of crude oil from West Africa, which has surprised experts. In recent years, small independent Chinese refiners have preferred Russian and Iranian crude because these shipments are usually cheaper and have shorter delivery routes, but geopolitical and economic conditions have made other routes more attractive. Overall, China’s oil imports last October decreased by 9% compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s supply is expected to reach its lowest level since July 2024.
Landbridge Petrochemical, which recently resumed operations after a long shutdown, has purchased 2 million barrels, including Angola’s Mustarda crude oil, which is expected to enter China in January 2025. This action has been taken in a situation where the global oil market is waiting for the Trump administration’s policies regarding Iran’s energy sector.
Of course, it should be noted that in exchange for selling oil, Tehran imports Chinese goods to settle its account, that is, it is part of the exchange of Iranian oil with Chinese goods. These are deals that US President Donald Trump cannot influence. Also, analysts ignore some of the differences between the present and the past, and the most important is that Iran’s oil used to be exported to about 20 countries or more, but now more than 90% of it is sent to the Chinese market, which makes sanctions more difficult.
According to experts, Donald Trump will not impose sanctions on Iran, unless he asks the Persian Gulf countries to increase their oil production in order to compensate for the lack of oil from Iran. But there is almost a consensus among analysts that the Persian Gulf countries will not respond to this request. Because Iran is their neighbor and interprets this action against them, and therefore there is no way for the Persian Gulf countries.
It should be noted that China’s small private refineries make up about a quarter of China’s refining capacity, and according to experts, the escalation of tensions in the Middle East has caused a change in the route towards Africa, which will decrease if the tension between Iran and the Zionist regime decreases.
In general, China’s purchase from Africa cannot be seen as a reduction in imports from Iran because geopolitical conditions require China to continue importing Iranian oil in order to secure its interests in the Persian Gulf.
Decrease in Chinese oil imports in October
Overall, China’s oil imports fell again last October, driven by the consequences of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election and expectations of a possible increase in supply from the OPEC+ alliance. According to customs data released on November 7, 2024, imports fell to 44.7 million tons (317.37 million barrels) in October, about 2 percent less than in September and about 9 percent less than the same period last year (2023).