Was Ayatollah Khamenei’s prediction about the end of American oil wrong?

The oil revolution and actually hydraulic fracturing made America change from a dependent importer to a reliable producer. The anti-development thinking in the body of the Iranian oil industry is against the use of technology that transformed the oil future of the United States.

According to the reporter of Energy Press, the prediction of the leadership of the revolution regarding the end of American oil in 2021 was re-read and this question was put in front of the leadership’s prediction, so why did it not happen, and not only did the American oil not run out, but its production almost doubled. In Nowruz 2019, the leader said in the Razavi Shrine: “Western countries are in trouble in terms of oil resources and their problems will increase day by day.” The oil resources of European countries and Western countries in general, some will run out in four years, some will run out in 6 years, some will run out in 9 years; Therefore, they have to use resources other than their own. The United States, which today has about 300 billion barrels of oil reserves, according to the calculations made by our country’s experts – whose statistics are based on the Americans’ own statistics – will run out of oil by 2021, that is, in nine years.

Was this not true? In 2014, Italy’s Eni Company predicted that Iran will have oil until 135 years from now, and that America and Mexico’s oil will run out in ten years from now. So, the leadership’s prediction was not far from reality at the time, but what disrupted the realization of these predictions was the shale oil revolution and, in fact, the hydraulic fracturing technique that revolutionized the American oil industry.

Although hydraulic fracturing is a very technical topic and its explanation requires the audience’s mastery of engineering topics, in simple terms, it should be said that in this method, water along with other minerals, including propanate, hit the surface of the rock with high pressure through wells drilled. and with the pressure it brings to the shale layer, it crushes a part of this stone layer and releases its oil.
The shale formation is impermeable by nature, meaning that naturally occurring fissures do not allow oil or natural gas to flow. To make a quick transition, the well must be “completed,” which is a separate step in the drilling process whereby perforations are made across the entire lateral wellbore link. During this stage of well completion (hydraulic fracturing), a mixture of water, chemicals, and propane is injected into the well at high pressure and breaks the shale formation, so the petroleum fluids can be pumped out through the holes and up to the surface.
This technology has been in the world’s drilling industry since 1945, but it was not made public because of its high costs, because it requires powerful pumps and a lot of water. Abri McClendon can be considered the father of modern hydraulic fracturing, who was able to make this tactic and technique cheaper and popular and started the famous shale revolution in the American oil industry.
The oil revolution and in fact hydraulic fracturing made America change from a dependent importer to a reliable producer. Although the growth of oil shale and gas shale production left many environmental effects, this industry did not stop its growth with this process and the American oil production was able to break the record of the seventies which was ten million barrels per day. In fact, the predictions that were waiting for the end of America’s oil reserves did not come close to reality and the page turned. It was actually the fracturing technique that exploded America’s oil production.
The demonstration of the power of this revolutionary technique in American oil raises the question of why we did not and will not go for it in Iran. A technique that exactly messed up all predictions about the future of American oil. Although this technique was used in the Saruk and Azeriran project, it was not completely successful due to not observing all the technical aspects, but this issue is not something that can be overcome.
Unfortunately, anti-development thoughts have penetrated into the country’s oil industry and they strongly oppose any innovation and technological methods. You should ask them what was the reason for the prosperity of the American oil industry and the hydraulic fracturing has messed up all the predictions.