Türkiye’s gas ambition in the form of “Turan” project

According to the exclusive report of Energy Press, Turkey, which is currently strengthening its position in the international arena, seeks to create a multipolar world and lead the Turkish world. In line with the Turan project, Ankara is now focusing its attention on the southeastern region of the post-Soviet space. Turkey’s diplomatic goals include the expansion of Turkish geopolitical and geoeconomic initiatives through the formation of integrated military, political, and economic structures, particularly the Turanian Army and the Turkish Common Market. In furtherance of these goals, Turkey is working on a wide range of initiatives, including cooperation with member and observer countries of the Turkish Organization in commercial and economic projects, energy, transportation and communication, military and military-technical projects.

Turkish and gas hub governments

The development of the Organization of Turkish States (OTS) and Turkey at its core follows the principle that was once expressed by the former president of Azerbaijan, Heydar Aliyev, regarding his country’s strategic alliance with Turkey: “One Nation – Two States”. Recently, this partnership has been upgraded to a high level of mutual cooperation in various key areas (trade, energy, transit routes, military cooperation and humanitarian projects). The military success of the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance in the second Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020-2023 was a strong incentive for Turkey to influence the historical space of Turan and as a catalyst for the formation of OTS.

Naturally, any durable political alliance must be based on a solid foundation and have an effective mechanism for economic integration. For this purpose, Turkey, which lacks strategic mineral resources such as oil, gas, uranium, gold, etc., makes optimal use of its strategic geographical location at the junction of three continents (Asia, Africa and Europe). Turkey has realized the transportation ways that enable Azerbaijan to export its oil and gas to European countries and bypass Russia. As a result, since the second half of the 2000s, Ankara gained a new importance in the system of global economic relations and began to play its role. The start of the Ukraine war and the implementation of a whole set of anti-Russian sanctions by the West, led by the United States, have increased the importance of Turkey as a transit route for the European market.

In this regard, and since the fall of 2022, Türkiye has been the center of the Russian “Gas Hub” mega project. But until now, the negotiations for the implementation of this project are still ongoing, and a number of legal and financial issues are still under consideration. Meanwhile, Ankara has asked Moscow for more attractive conditions, especially the supply of gas at lower prices, the right to participate as a partner in the sale of gas to global markets, and the participation of new exporters from Turkic countries (especially Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) in the Turkish gas hub. .

Turkey is successfully developing energy relations with Azerbaijan and has built a complete system of transportation infrastructure (gas and oil pipelines) as part of the South Caucasus and Trans-Anatolian Corridor. In addition, the cooperation between Russia and Azerbaijan does not eliminate the bilateral cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan in the gas hub project, but complements it. However, many questions remain regarding Turkey’s access to the eastern shores of the Caspian Sea to transport gas from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan and, in the future, Uzbekistan.

The importance of Turkmenistan’s strategy

Among the Turkish CIS countries, Turkmenistan has proven to be the leader in gas reserves with more than 20 trillion cubic meters or approximately 10% of world reserves. When this figure is compared to the proven reserves of Azerbaijan (2.8 trillion cubic meters or 1.8% of global reserves), Kazakhstan (2.7 trillion cubic meters or 1.7 percent of global reserves) and Uzbekistan (1.8 trillion cubic meters or 0.89 percentage of global reserves), the resources of these countries make up 14.4% of the world’s gas reserves. International competition for access to the gas resources of Turkmenistan and other Turkic countries gives Turkey a strategic advantage.

Turkey’s access to Azerbaijan’s largest gas field, Shah Deniz, allows Ankara to gain significant financial benefits from the transit and its political influence over the European Union, although it will gain even more if it gains access to Turkmenistan’s Galkinish field. . In addition, Turkey’s role as a transit supplier of gas from Central Asia to Europe helps to strengthen the implementation of the Turan project.

Meanwhile, Galkinish field is one of the most important gas fields in Turkmenistan and the world. As a result of the discovery of this gas field and a number of other large gas fields, Turkmenistan became the fourth holder of natural gas reserves in the world.

Currently, Turkmenistan exports most of its gas to China. Of course, Ashgabat tries to diversify its exports and supply gas to the European market. As a result of the crisis in Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia, the share of Russian gas exports to Europe has decreased drastically. Considering the energy needs of this potential market, there is clearly a demand for Turkmen gas exports to the EU, and Ashgabat, Ankara and Brussels have all expressed interest in supplying it. Turkey is also trying to develop more effective and mutually beneficial relations between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, as both countries are interested in the European market, but neither can supply their gas to Europe without foreign assistance, and both countries are geographically Turkey is dependent. Another important reason for Turkey’s rapprochement between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan is the Turan project, that is, the integration of Turkic nations based on mutually beneficial economic projects led by Turkey.