The upward trend of China’s oil imports from Iran

According to the report of Energy Press, quoted by Reuters, the movement of Iranian oil to China indicates important changes in China’s business patterns and import strategies, which are designed in response to major changes in the global oil market and current geopolitical conditions. The uninterrupted export of Iranian oil reflects the strategic decisions of Chinese importers in response to international pressure against this country.
If former US President Donald Trump wins the upcoming elections in this country, his administration’s historical hostility towards Iran and even China could potentially lead to strict implementation of sanctions and increased pressure on countries involved in trade with Iran, including China. In response to the possible return of the Trump administration and his expected strict stances towards Iran, China’s oil policy towards our country will probably change, and there is a possibility that this country will move closer to Iran to strengthen its energy security. China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil and relies heavily on imported energy to power its economy.
Iran has significant reserves of oil and natural gas that it can export to its strategic partner, China, to diversify its energy imports, which is essential for China’s economic planning and industrial growth. By providing reliable energy sources from Iran, China can also reduce the risks caused by the fluctuations of the global oil markets. Strengthening cooperation with Iran can provide new economic and commercial opportunities for China. Beyond energy, Iran has significant mineral resources and is strategically located along key trade routes. Closer economic relations can facilitate investment in infrastructure projects and joint ventures and benefit the economies of both countries. China’s foreign policy often emphasizes non-interference and respect for sovereignty and aligns with Iran’s positions in international relations. Strengthening bilateral relations with Iran could serve China’s broader geopolitical interests by strengthening alliances with countries that share similar views on global and multipolar governance. Closer ties with Iran could also be seen as a way for China to counter US influence in the Middle East and the world.

Considering the historical tensions between the United States and Iran, China’s cooperation with Iran can be seen as a strategic maneuver to defend its interests and influence in the region, potentially reducing its vulnerability to American geopolitical pressures. The increase in Iran’s oil exports to China with The decline in demand has been accompanied by small independent refineries in Shandong province. These refineries, which have been the main buyers of Iranian oil in China since 2019, have less ability to buy Iranian oil due to the reduction in the refining profit margin caused by the increase in oil prices and the decrease in fuel demand. This decrease in demand has changed the direction of Iran’s oil exports to Chinese ports. Despite US sanctions that were reimposed in 2018 over Iran’s nuclear program, China has continued to import Iranian oil, especially through independent refineries known as Teapot. This fact shows the importance of Iran’s oil for China and the country’s ability to deal with international pressure.

Tracking Iranian shipments
Reuters emphasizes that Vertexa, a consulting company specializing in tracking oil tankers, reported that between October 2023 and Vienna 2024, 23 shipments of Iranian crude oil, totaling 45 million barrels, were unloaded in Chinese ports. This volume was mainly for strategic storage. Kpler consulting company also estimated that China imported 34 million barrels of oil from Iran in the same period. These figures are equivalent to daily imports of 124,000 to 164,000 barrels, which make up approximately 13% of China’s total oil imports from Iran in the first half of 2024.