Soon we won’t have hydrocarbons for export / gas imbalance will turn into energy imbalance

According to Energy Press, they have been talking about the energy imbalance in Iran for a long time and that Iran may become an importing country in the field of energy after some time. what is your opinion?

We currently have disagreements in gas, electricity and gasoline. There is an imbalance in gas even in summer and the result is that we have to use liquid fuel in power plants both in summer and in winter. But based on my estimates, this dissatisfaction will soon turn into a dissatisfaction in the whole energy, and reaching that time is not too complicated.

Note that currently more than 97% of our primary energy comes from hydrocarbons, i.e. oil, natural gas, and gas condensates, which are interchangeable with each other, for example, when we have little gas, we actually replace crude oil and use its products in power plants or We use it in industries, or if they are forced to cut off gas at CNG stations due to gas shortage, gasoline consumption will naturally increase. Based on my estimates, in a macro view, if we equate all hydrocarbons in terms of calorific value, we currently have about 9.3 million barrels per day (equivalent of crude oil) to produce crude oil and natural gas and gas condensate, of which about 6 We consume 7 million barrels (equivalent of crude oil) in the form of gas, oil products and condensate. Currently, we have an export potential of about 2.6 million barrels (equivalent to crude oil), which includes gas exports to Turkey and Iraq and exports of crude oil and condensates, although part of this capacity is not used due to sanctions. Please note that on the one hand, we have an annual drop in production, that is, whether in gas, crude oil, or condensate, our production is in a downward trend, and on the other hand, our domestic consumption is increasing annually, the average growth of consumption in the case of natural gas, which is currently It provides more than 70% of the domestic needs, in the last ten years it has been at least between 5 and 6%, and we have a growing demand for products. Now let’s assume that we have only a 1% annual drop in production in total hydrocarbons and on the other hand, we have only a 3% annual average increase in the demand for hydrocarbons, both of which are very, very optimistic, and we are forced to use hydrocarbon carriers to supply domestic energy, as I mentioned. replace each other, with the continuation of the existing trend, we will not have any hydrocarbons to export in 1410 at the latest, or if we want to export, we will have to stop petrochemicals, industries and production and face a sharper drop in the economic growth rate, which will result in the intensification of the economy’s dependence It will be oil.

*Of course, some experts in the media have suggested that the energy imbalance in Iran is a myth and is only raised with the aim of increasing prices. I wanted to know your opinion about the perspective of Iran’s energy balance in different carriers such as gas, electricity, gasoline, diesel, etc.

As I said in the answer to the previous question, in my opinion, the dissatisfaction that Alan has in some energy carriers, especially in the case of natural gas (as the main energy supplier of the country), will turn into dissatisfaction in the whole energy within the next 6 to 8 years, and this is not at all. not an illusion Yes, there are those who, in my opinion, still do not understand the depth of the disaster and do not have a clear vision of the future of energy, and raising these issues is an excuse for them to recommend an increase in the price of carriers, but the facts are very worrying.

What is the root of energy imbalance? Some point to the issue of energy consumption, how much does “consumption” fuel the energy imbalance, or what is its contribution along with other factors? What is the share of domestic consumption in these conflicts?

Some may want to simplify and reduce the problem to one factor such as price or consumption, but the reality is that there are many causes and factors. There have been and still are big mistakes in the energy production and distribution sector. Estimates have often been wrong, for example, you see the day in 2013, when the Ministry of Oil proposed the plan to create eight Siraf refineries with a total capacity of 640 million barrels per day to treat South Pars condensate, at the same time, I said and wrote that according to the facts of the South Pars production process And according to the amounts committed to supply the condensates of the Persian Gulf Star Refinery and Petrochemicals, there will be no food for these refineries, but it was not paid attention to and a lot of expenses were incurred, and today the issue of Siraf (of course in the form of lights off) has been almost eliminated, or for example, while twenty Last year, it was decided to build the Alan J plant for the export of gas through liquefaction, and very heavy and fruitless expenses were made in this field. They took gas to all the power plants with heavy costs, but now there is no gas to give to the power plants even in the summer, and the power plants have to use liquid fuel, including heating oil and diesel, as before. Well, all these examples, to which many more can be added, show that energy producers and suppliers not only did not have a correct estimate of the future of production, but were delusional. Currently, petrochemical complexes are being built in Makran region and some other places, while they cannot provide enough feed or raw material for the existing petrochemical plants whose feed is natural gas or gas condensate.