The Strait of Hormuz has become a strange scene in the global energy market these days, with ships having to disappear to pass through it.

While no official decision has yet been made on Iran’s sanctions waivers, speculation about the possibility of some restrictions being eased has focused attention on an industry that became one of the country’s most important sources of foreign exchange during the sanctions years: the petrochemical industry. But the big question is whether any potential waivers would only pave the way for exports, or could they also unlock technology, equipment, and investment?

The seizure of a support ship belonging to China's security company in the Strait of Hormuz, coinciding with Trump and Xi Jinping's meeting in Beijing, has been interpreted by international analysts as a "hidden ultimatum" from Tehran to Beijing; a message that, while emphasizing the monopoly on security in this strategic waterway, tells China that its energy interests will not be guaranteed if it aligns with Washington.