Moscow’s energy exports to Central Asia are decreasing; can Iran replace Russia?

According to Energy Press, in addition to affecting the country’s domestic market, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have also disrupted the fuel supply chain to dependent countries in Central Asia. Russia, which was previously the main supplier of gasoline and diesel to the region, has recently significantly limited its exports in order to control the domestic market.
Crisis in Central Asia: Urgent Need for Alternative Sources
Following these developments, Tajikistan, which imported more than 95 percent of its fuel needs from Russia, has faced serious shortages and a sharp increase in prices. Kyrgyzstan is also experiencing similar conditions. Although Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are also trying to contain the crisis by using domestic reserves and imports from Turkmenistan, the continuation of this solution is not certain.
Russia’s vacuum, Iran’s opportunity
The reduction in Russian fuel exports has effectively created a large vacuum in the Central Asian energy market. These countries are looking for reliable alternative sources, and Iran is one of the closest and most likely options geographically and logistically.
Iran can expand exports to regional countries in the form of swaps or bilateral contracts. Border routes with Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, as well as road and rail corridors from the northeast of the country, provide access to the markets of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Developing export infrastructure
Iran should increase investment in its export ports and pipelines. Chabahar Port, as a gateway to Central Asia, can play a key role in exporting fuel to regional countries. Developing pipelines to neighboring countries such as Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan can also facilitate access to these countries’ markets.