Morteza Behrouzifar: It is unlikely that we will see a jump in oil prices in 2026

According to Energy Press, in an interview with Shana reporter on the eve of entering 2026, Morteza Behrouzifar analyzed the conditions of the global oil market and stated: In recent years, we have witnessed that one of the largest oil producers in the world, Russia, has been involved in war and extensive sanctions, but contrary to expectations, oil prices increased only in limited periods and were generally lower than in previous shocks. This experience shows that the oil market today is more flexible than in the past.
Referring to the outlook for next year, he added: Given what was experienced this year, I do not think there will be a significant increase in oil prices in 2026, unless a specific development occurs at the global level, both from a geopolitical perspective and from the perspective of economic growth in major consumer countries.
Current prices; Still Economical for Producers
A faculty member at the Institute for International Energy Studies said about the economic nature of current prices for producers: When we see that production continues, it means that this price level is economic for producers. If the price of oil were lower than production costs, it would naturally not be logical for many countries to continue production. The experience of previous years, including the maximum pressure of the Trump era, showed that producing countries, especially in the Persian Gulf, are trying to avoid causing shocks in the global oil market while maintaining political and security relations.
Referring to the role of OPEC+ in the coming years, Behrouzifar stated: OPEC+’s performance in managing the oil market will continue in 2026, but we should not forget that the main players in this coalition have concerns beyond the oil market. The relations of these countries with the United States, whether we like it or not, affect their decisions, and it does not seem that there is a serious desire to create price tension in the market.
He continued by referring to the growth of US oil production and said: “Over the past decade, the US has transformed from a major importer of oil to a country that practically does not need the global market and can even be considered a net exporter. This development has had a profound impact on the world’s energy equations and has meant that US energy security is no longer directly tied to the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. For this reason, US behavior and policies towards the countries of the region have changed drastically compared to 15 years ago.”