Middle East conflicts determine global oil prices

According to Energy Press, we have been witnessing the escalation of diplomatic tensions in the Middle East for some time. The Zionist occupation regime attacked the Iranian consulate in Syria, and in a punitive measure, Iran responded to this aggression with drones and missiles, albeit in a limited manner.
The role of regional tensions
The global price of crude oil has experienced many fluctuations since the beginning of tensions. According to the Deccanherald website, if, for example, crude oil transit routes are disrupted for any reason, countries like India, which import the crude oil they need from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE, will probably face an increase in the price of oil and LNG. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Company announced in a note; While international efforts to reduce tensions will probably succeed in preventing the escalation of the crisis, if these efforts fail and as a result, if the scope of conflicts in the Middle East region increases, the global price of oil and LNG will experience a significant increase.
The key issue of oil transit
In case of disruption in the shipping routes for the transit of crude oil and LNG, it can be claimed that unlike oil, which has alternative routes available for its movement, no alternative routes for liquid natural gas will be available. Delhi, which depends on foreign suppliers for more than 85% of its crude oil needs, imports oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE, as well as Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) by sea rather than by pipeline. In the event of a disruption for any reason in the conventional marine oil transit routes, crude oil prices, refinery margins and spot LNG prices are expected to increase, while alternative routes exist, these routes may only be able to cover the shortfall (around 7 8 million barrels per day of crude oil/refined products) from the volume that currently passes through conventional routes, i.e. beyond 20 million barrels of crude oil equivalent per day and at the same time, with high transportation costs.
As mentioned in the previous reports about the developments of the global oil market, observers of the global energy market are monitoring the geopolitical developments of the Middle East with high sensitivity. In the midst of the current tensions, it is feared that any possible attack on the oil production or export sites of any of the oil-rich countries in the Persian Gulf will increase the price of Brent crude oil to $100 per barrel, while the disruption in the movement of oil tankers can increase the price of crude oil in the range between 120 to 130 dollars per barrel.
LNG transit, more difficult than oil
In a situation where energy market investors focus on crude oil trade according to a long tradition, it is predicted that if the current shipping routes are interrupted or disrupted, due to the lack of suitable alternative routes, LNG spot prices will witness more severe fluctuations. In the meantime, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have alternative export routes that they can use in emergency situations. According to the report of the International Energy Agency, Saudi Arabia has an east-west pipeline with a nominal capacity of 7 million barrels of crude oil per day, however, this pipeline opens to the Red Sea, where the flow of maritime traffic has been disrupted due to attacks by Yemen’s Houthis.