Iran is a safe option for Turkmen gas exports

According to Energy Press, Turkmenistan is a key player in the energy market, with the world’s 11th largest natural gas reserves. However, this wealth has become not only a source of prosperity, but also a challenge for the country, as the development of the gas industry has faced a set of economic, geopolitical and infrastructural obstacles. Turkmenistan’s energy strategy, launched during the first term of President Saparmurat Niyazov, is based on diversifying export routes. But the question always arises whether the country can use its potential on a global scale?
Current infrastructure and main routes
The basis for natural gas exports is the main gas pipelines, which are: 1-. “Turkmenistan-China”: a transnational pipeline with a length of more than 9,000 km, including three operational lines (A, B, C) with a total capacity of 55 billion cubic meters, with a planned fourth line (D)) increasing its supply volume to 65 billion cubic meters. Gas exports to China have become a key area thanks to the agreement reached between Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow and Xi Jinping. However, Turkmenistan is also looking to diversify its exports and is pushing the idea of ​​supplying Europe via the Caspian Sea.
Gas pipelines to the west include the Karpche-Kurdkoy, which connects Turkmenistan to Iran, and the Trans-Caspian pipeline project aimed at the European market. The Trans-Caspian pipeline, conceived in the early 2000s, has repeatedly encountered economic and political obstacles. Even agreements reached on the status of the Caspian Sea (2018) have failed to speed up the project’s implementation.
The main problems with the pipeline are: 1- Financing: The construction of the line is estimated at $12-15 billion, which, given the financial difficulties of the European Union and the lack of investors, remains on paper. 2- Environmental standards: Compliance with environmental requirements creates additional risks and increases the implementation time. 3- Geopolitical issues: The growing conflict of interests between Russia, China and the West calls into question the stability of supply, however, the alternative option of building the Azerbaijani pipeline seems more realistic.
Geopolitical risks
Turkmen gas is located at the intersection of the interests of key global players, which limits its export potential, including; 1. West versus China and Russia: The United States seeks to limit China’s influence in Central Asia. Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are becoming targets of pressure. 2. Security threats: The problems in Afghanistan and the possibility of escalating conflicts on the Turkmen border threaten the stability of gas exports via TAPI. 3. Iran and Turkey: The escalation of regional conflicts (including tensions between Iran, Turkey and Israel) creates an additional factor of instability.
The Iranian option
Under these conditions, the best option for exporting Turkmen gas is through Iran, through which transit to Iraq will also take place within this framework. Ahmed Musa, spokesman for the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity, announced that the ministry has an agreement with Turkmenistan to supply gas and is working intensively with the Iraqi Trade Bank to ensure that the financial measures related to opening credit and transferring money to the Turkmen side are completed. Referring to the ministry’s plans to compensate for the shortage of gas imports from Iran, he stated that the agreement to supply gas from Turkmenistan will meet 50 percent of the needs of Iraqi power plants.