Importance of GECF meeting in Tehran; Gas market awaits exporters’ decision

According to Energy Press; The 26th Ministerial Meeting of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) will be held in Tehran from 6 to 8 Azar, and 16 of the world’s most important gas producers and exporters will participate in the meeting. Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad announced: “Gas trade and the possibility of increasing production” is the focus of the 26th Ministerial Meeting of Gas Exporting Countries in Tehran.
Capacity of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) is an international organization that provides a framework for the exchange of experiences and information among member countries. The forum, which was officially established in 2001, seeks to create a mechanism for meaningful dialogue between gas producers and consumers in order to improve the stability and security of supply and demand in global gas markets.
The forum’s vision is reflected in four strategic goals: expanding the role of natural gas in sustainable development, fairly increasing natural gas prices, developing modern technologies in the gas industry, and enhancing the international status of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum as a global forum.
The organization consists of 12 main members; Algeria, Bolivia, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. The forum also includes 8 observer members: Angola, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Malaysia, Mozambique, Peru, Senegal and Mauritania. The importance of this institution stems from the forum’s dominant position in global energy markets, as member countries hold 70% of the world’s proven gas reserves, or 144.7 trillion cubic meters, and 42% of production, or 1.73 trillion cubic meters, in 2022. The forum includes the three countries with the largest gas reserves in the world, namely Russia with about 47.59 trillion cubic meters, followed by Iran and Qatar with about 33.98 and 23.83 trillion cubic meters, respectively. The forum countries also account for 47 percent of pipeline exports (367.8 billion cubic meters in 2022) and 52 percent of global liquefied natural gas exports (272.2 billion cubic meters in 2022).
Market hungry for increased production
According to Iran’s oil minister, the possibility of increasing gas production will be the focus of the Tehran meeting. There is a need to significantly increase global gas supply to meet growing demand in the manufacturing, industrial and residential sectors worldwide by 2030. Published reports estimate that the world needs to increase global natural gas supply by an additional 1 trillion cubic meters to meet demand by 2030.
Global gas supply exceeded 4 trillion cubic meters in 2023 and is expected to increase to 4.21 trillion cubic meters next year (2025). Except for Australia and Europe, all other continents are expected to register an increase in natural gas supply during 2025.
The largest increase in global gas supply is also expected to come from North America, followed by Russia and the Middle East. Most of the growth in US gas production is likely to come from the Permian Basin, while most of the growth in the Middle East will come from the development of the Jufra field in Saudi Arabia, which is not a member of the gas consortium. Although natural gas production in Russia is expected to grow, most of it will be consumed to meet domestic demand, with some exported to China. Russian natural gas exports to Europe are expected to gradually decline over the next few years after a sharp decline in 2023, as Europe has managed to find alternative routes for imports.