Consequences of the Gazprom Sanctions: From Europe’s Concern to an Opportunity for Tehran

According to Energy Press, Western experts believe that although Trump talks about peace, if Russia does not agree to the US conditions regarding the Ukraine conflict, Trump is likely to tighten sanctions on Moscow. Inside the United States, Trump also has more freedom, since both houses of Congress are controlled by Republicans.
In this regard, the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced a new package of restrictions on the Russian financial sector on November 21. More than 50 banks were included in the blacklist of citizens and organizations with which all US individuals and legal entities are prohibited from doing business. But the most important item on the new list is Gazprombank (along with its subsidiaries in Hong Kong, Luxembourg, Switzerland, South Africa and Cyprus).
In March 2022, shortly after the Russian armed forces invaded Ukraine, Vladimir Putin ordered that buyers of Russian gas from “unfriendly” countries must pay for raw materials in rubles and through Gazprombank. After the US imposed sanctions on the Moscow Exchange, the payment scheme was slightly adjusted, but Gazprombank remained the authorized organization responsible for processing gas payments. Thus, the bank acquired a unique role in the sanctioned Russian economy and for two years was the only state-owned credit institution capable of carrying out currency transfers inside and outside Russia.
Now the question arises whether the sanctions on Gazprombank can stop the purchase of Russian gas by the EU countries? Western countries have significantly reduced the share of Russian energy in their imports since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine, but its complete cessation could mean new shocks to the market and a sharp jump in hydrocarbon prices. Natural gas prices in Europe are rising on the eve of the cold winter; since the beginning of November, base futures prices have increased by 20% and on Monday, November 25, they rose by almost 4%, with energy experts directly identifying the sanctions on Gazprombank among the reasons for this dynamics.
Moscow, however, has announced that it will find a solution to continue trading. In this regard, Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, did not specify whether the existing mechanism for paying for gas through Gazprombank will be canceled. Experts expect that if Gazprombank does not receive permission to continue energy transactions, the company will look for another agent bank among the OFAC-licensed banks to accept payments and, perhaps, even begin to develop trade in alternative currencies to the dollar and euro.
Europe’s concerns are growing
As mentioned, the new US President Donald Trump is on the path to implementing new sanctions, especially on the Russian bank Gazprom. This is worrying Europe, as it will greatly affect its energy security. According to some experts, the issue of sanctions on Gazprombank will expand significantly, and European pressure on the United States to prevent it will probably also arise. It should be noted that Trump’s move threatens energy security in Europe, which now has no alternative to Russian gas.
After European countries refused or were unable to pay in rubles, Putin stopped exporting their resources, and thus Russian gas from Austria was cut off, ultimately increasing gas prices and causing the company to suffer huge losses. As a result, an Austrian court sued Gazprom and won last week. The court decided to fine Gazprom 250 million euros in favor of the Austrian company OMV, putting pressure on Gazprom.