Can China find an alternative to Iranian oil?

According to the exclusive report of Energy Press, tensions in the region are increasing day by day, and recent developments have increased the possibility of conflicts spreading and the situation leading to a large-scale conflict. The existing speculations have included Iran’s oil infrastructure at the center of the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and raise the possibility that if the fire of conflicts flares up, in which direction the situation will go and what effect it will have on Iran’s oil partners.
Beijing at the forefront of developments
China, which buys more than 90% of Iran’s exported oil, undoubtedly has an important position in this situation. Almost three-quarters of Beijing’s oil consumption relies on imports from around the world. The loss of supply from Iran makes China turn to global markets to meet its energy needs.
On the other hand, for Iran, exports to China are a vital source of financial resources. This country’s oil sales to China amount to about 2 billion dollars per month and constitute at least 5% of Iran’s total economic output. In other words, the Chinese provide the cash that Iran needs for its imports. It should also be considered that the oil trade between Iran and China has been profitable for Tehran because this country, unlike some of Tehran’s other export destinations, has the ability to pay and provide the necessary financial resources for this trade.
From the Chinese point of view, Iranian oil is cheap and is sold at significant discounts compared to world prices. While China, India and some developing countries continue to buy Russian oil despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it is practically only China that is involved in large-scale oil imports from Iran.
According to the New York Times, this issue also shows China’s dependence on Iran. China needs to buy a lot of energy to maintain its economy. It is the largest oil importer in the world and the second largest oil consumer after the United States. However, China has done much to limit its overall reliance on oil. Gabriel Collins, a China energy researcher at Rice University’s Public Policy Institute in Houston, said: “While oil accounts for 40 percent of energy consumption in the United States, it is only about 20 percent of China’s total energy.”
Meanwhile, according to “Andon Pavlov”, senior analyst of refinery and petroleum products at Kepler Company, it is estimated that 15% of China’s oil imports come from Iran.
The possibility of a decrease in purchases?
But according to the available statistics, despite China’s dependence on Iranian oil, Tehran is not the only energy supplier to Beijing. China also purchases a lot of energy from Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Angola. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries produce five million barrels per day less than their full capacity. The group, a group of oil producers led by Saudi Arabia, is producing less than it can to keep prices relatively high. If widespread conflict prevents China from buying its usual amount of oil from Iran—about 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day—Iran’s neighbors may be happy to introduce themselves as a substitute.