Can the US prevent Iranian oil exports to China?

According to Energy Press, this article is a translation of Can Donald Trump stop Iran’s oil exports to China, which was done by Ismail News. This article examines Iran’s export potential and Trump’s confrontation with it:
The recent escalation of tensions between Iran and the United States has highlighted one of Washington’s thorniest issues in its confrontation with Tehran: Iran’s oil exports to China — an economic lifeline — and the increasing difficulties the United States faces in stopping these exports.
Tensions between the two countries escalated last Thursday when the fourth round of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran was abruptly postponed. On the same day, US President Donald Trump issued a stark warning about Iranian oil: “Any country or individual that purchases oil or petrochemicals from Iran will be subject to immediate US sanctions.”
Trump wrote on the social network Truth Social about the businessmen’s trade with Iran, “They will not be allowed to do business with the United States under any circumstances,” and by publishing this text, he emphasized his tough stance. He has also repeatedly emphasized in other statements that if the path of negotiations with Iran fails, he will apply more pressure and sanctions.
In recent months, and before the start of the Iran-US negotiations, the Trump administration re-launched the “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran; a campaign designed to reduce oil exports to zero and against Iran’s nuclear program.
Based on this campaign, the United States imposed new sanctions on entities accused of facilitating the sale of Iranian oil; among these restrictions, one can mention the sanctions on a crude oil storage terminal in China and an independent refiner.
Sanctions are pressing, but Iranian oil is still flowing
Because of the size and influence of the US economy in other countries, sanctions—not just actions taken by US companies but also by companies from other countries doing business with a sanctioned government—are one of the United States’ uniquely powerful tools against others.
It also presents a stark choice for countries that depend on the US market: either stop buying oil from Iran or face economic isolation.
But despite these tools and threats, Iran appears to be adapting and moving forward.
Despite US efforts to stifle Iran’s oil trade, Tehran still exports about 1.2 million to 1.5 million barrels of crude per day, according to data from commodity analysts Kepler and Vertexa.
This is a significant jump from mid-2020, when Iran’s oil exports were reported to have fallen below 400,000 barrels per day due to a combination of sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic. Most of Iran’s oil is sold at a discount to China, which has become Tehran’s regular buyer despite the threat of US sanctions. Analysts estimate that Iran earns between $30 billion and $40 billion annually from these sales.
Tags:oil
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