Countdown begins for new gas contract; Ashgabat-Tehran-Ankara axis to be activated

Turkey imports almost all of its natural gas and is one of Europe’s largest gas markets, according to Energy Press. Ankara is also seeking to diversify its sources of the strategic commodity as part of its ambitious goal of becoming a gas trading hub. Turkmenistan, a natural gas-rich country, is competing to export the commodity to Europe after Russian gas supplies to the EU were cut following the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022.
Details of the trilateral cooperation
On February 11, Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced the signing of a deal between state-owned energy company Botas and Turkmenistan’s Turkmengaz. Under the swap deal, Turkmengaz will deliver up to 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Turkey annually. This volume is said to be transported to northern Iran, with Turkey receiving the equivalent through the Iran-Turkey pipeline. According to official statements, deliveries are scheduled to begin on March 1 (today) and the planned volume of 1.3 billion cubic meters will be delivered by the end of this year. Details on the duration of the contract, the price of gas and the specific terms of the deal with Iran have not yet been announced.
Although the agreement covers a relatively small volume of gas, it is in line with the strategic interests of both sides. For Ankara, it represents another step towards diversifying energy imports. For Ashgabat, it also expands export routes for its key sources, especially given the non-renewal of its gas sales contract with Russia and Moscow’s increasing competition as a supplier of pipeline gas to China.
In 2024, Turkmenistan supplied China with approximately 32.5-33.5 billion cubic meters of gas, while Russia exported 31 billion cubic meters. However, frequent disruptions to Iranian energy deliveries and the potential impact of US sanctions on Iran’s energy sector are likely to jeopardize the successful implementation of the agreement.
The deal is politically significant as a pilot initiative for broader gas cooperation between the three countries. At a time when Turkmen gas is not available on the European market, it underscores Ankara’s key role in Ashgabat’s strategic plans. Turkmenistan, a major gas producer with 8 percent of global gas reserves, has been seeking to export its resources to the West. The agreement with Turkey is in line with Ashgabat’s efforts, which increased after the Kremlin’s decision to halt gas supplies to the European Union, to show that it is ready to supply Turkmen gas to the EU market.
In addition, the deal could help Azerbaijan gain approval for trilateral energy projects. Although the initial volume of gas supplied from Turkmenistan will be insignificant in the short term compared to Turkey’s total imports (which exceeded 50 billion cubic meters in 2023), the potential increase to 15 billion cubic meters per year over two decades, as announced by Turkish officials, would be a significant improvement. However, achieving this goal would require new infrastructure, such as expanding pipeline capacity inside Iran. It should be noted that the Trans-Caspian project from the Caspian Sea has also faced obstacles from Russia, which sees Turkmen gas as direct competition.