Putting pressure on Baghdad: Trump team’s new approach to stopping Iranian oil exports

The return of US President-elect Donald Trump to the White House raises questions for the oil market, including what his return to the Oval Office might mean for Iran’s crude exports. This is especially important given that Trump’s four-year presidency was marked by extensive sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports.
A repeat of previous scenarios?
Early signs are reportedly that Trump intends to ease pressure on Iran and its oil sales, but it is unlikely that a repeat of his first-term directives today will have the same result. Iranian oil exports have been on the rise since US President Joe Biden won the election four years ago. Before Biden took office, his campaign rhetoric about wanting to revive the 2015 nuclear deal created a space for a relative easing of tensions. This, in turn, paved the way for improved Iranian oil sales.
Iran’s crude oil and condensate exports averaged below 500,000 barrels per day in the second half of 2019 and 2020 when Trump-era sanctions were in place, but they began to rise in 2021 and have continued to do so ever since. According to analysts, Iran’s oil exports averaged about 1.6 million barrels per day from January to October of this year.
Experts say Trump’s second presidency will bring about some changes in this trend. Given his first administration’s belligerent stance toward Iran, there is a high expectation that he and his new team will tighten economic pressure on Iran in an effort to limit Tehran’s ability in the region. The stated goal of Trump’s maximum pressure campaign in 2018 was to reduce Iran’s oil exports from above 2 million barrels per day to zero. And while he ultimately failed to achieve that ultimate goal, reducing exports to less than a quarter of pre-sanctions levels was still a success. However, repeating that success in 2025 and beyond will be a long shot.
Methods of applying pressure
With this in mind, many experts believe that Trump and his team will use different methods to apply pressure on Tehran this time. According to them, Donald Trump intends to sharply increase sanctions against Iran and limit the sale of Iranian oil, and has also prepared new methods for himself in this regard.