Competition between Iran and Afghanistan for Turkmen gas transit

According to Energy Press; Turkmenistan has resumed construction of a key part of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, a major project that was halted due to regional instability. On September 11, 2024, the project was finally reaccelerated during a ceremony attended by the leaders of Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. The TAPI pipeline, one of Central Asia’s most ambitious infrastructure projects, was first designed in the early 2000s. Its main goal is to transport Turkmenistan’s huge gas reserves through Afghanistan to Pakistan and then India. The pipeline is expected to significantly boost the economies of these countries and serve as a potential symbol of stability in the region. However, security concerns, especially in Afghanistan, have long been the biggest obstacle.
For Turkmenistan, TAPI is a vital link to the South Asian energy market. The country’s Galkinish gas field, the world’s second largest, has enormous potential. Supplying gas to major markets such as Pakistan and India could greatly boost Turkmenistan’s economy.
The project was funded by the TAPI Pipeline Co. consortium. Ltd is managed by companies from Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. Turkmen Gas’s state-owned company Turkmen Gas holds 85 percent of the shares, with the rest divided equally between Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.
The presence of Pakistan and India is not only a great opportunity to improve energy security in these countries, but also a unique opportunity for cooperation between the two countries because of their long-standing tensions. Under the agreement, Pakistan and India will receive 14 billion cubic meters of gas annually, while Afghanistan will receive 5 billion cubic meters of gas.
The project has faced frequent delays, mainly due to the challenging security situation in Afghanistan. Since the Taliban returned to power in 2021, new obstacles have emerged. Although the new government has pledged to ensure a safe building environment, concerns about long-term stability remain. In October 2023, Afghan officials made a significant move by purchasing land along the pipeline route, the first real progress in resuming construction in Afghanistan.
However, Afghanistan remains the most fragile part of the TAPI equation. Its strategic location is essential to the success of the project, but it also carries the greatest risks. Continued threats from extremist groups, economic instability and political uncertainty continue to question the future of the project.
The TAPI project could strengthen Turkmenistan’s position as a key gas exporter while meeting the energy needs of Pakistan and India by supplying them with affordable gas. Turkmenistan has already completed part of its pipeline, and new infrastructure projects along the Afghan border are hopes for faster integration into the region’s economy.
Despite the complicated political relationship between Pakistan and India, the two countries are keenly interested in the success of TAPI. This is one of the few cases where economic cooperation can potentially overcome political tensions and pave the way for regional cooperation. The pipeline could not only mean access to gas for Afghanistan, but also a sustainable source of income through transit costs, which is critical to the country’s economic recovery.
Russia has also shown interest in the project. In January 2023, Moscow announced its readiness to join TAPI, seeing it as a complement to its energy initiatives, such as gas supply through Central Asia and Pakistan Stream. This could change the energy dynamics of the region and allow Russia to play an increasingly active role, while advancing its geopolitical interests.